Analisis Industria Home Movies De Estados Unidos

1) Market Size and Forecast

Recession and disruptive business models make for dim outlook

The market for video rentals and sell-through has been on the decline since 2005 (figures below include revenues from physical discs, streaming, and digital transmission). Matters were made worse by the recession in 2009, which drove consumers to pull back on physical disc purchases and seek out better values in the rental space (e.g., subscriptions). Sales continue to be negatively impacted by emerging disruptive business models, including streaming libraries and automated kiosks.

Revenues declined in 2009 and 2010 even as the number of consumer transactions for pre-recorded content grew (see Market Drivers). This indicates that demand for movies at home remains stable and that pricing pressure is causing the overall sales decline.

More recent DEG data suggest that times may get even tougher for the industry, with first-quarter spending on rentals and sell-through in 2011 falling 10% to $4.7 billion. Traditional distribution channels (physical disc sell-through and video store rental) appear to be in free fall, while new value channels (subscription and kiosk rentals) and digital transmission are seeing strong growth.

Over the next five years, sales of digitally transmitted content and Blu-ray discs are expected to grow enough to compensate for declining DVD revenues. Studios continue to experiment with ways to best harness the power of digital delivery; growth will depend on their ability to develop successful business models that increase value to the home viewer (e.g., shorter windows to home release).

Figure 3: U.S. sales of movie sell-through and rental, at current prices, 2005-15

$billion % change Index (2005 = 100) Index (2010 = 100)

2005 21.8 - 100 116

2006 21.6 -0.9 99 115

2007 21.4 -0.9 98 114

2008 21.0 -1.9 96 112

2009 19.4 -7.6 89 103

2010 18.8 -3.1 86 100

2011 (fore.) 18.9 0.7 87 101

2012 (fore.) 19.6 3.5 90 104

2013 (fore.) 20.2 2.9 93 107

2014 (fore.) 20.7 2.5 95 110

2015 (fore.) 21.2 2.7 97 113

Source: Mintel/Digital Entertainment Group

Figure 4: U.S. sales of movie sell-through and rental, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15

$billion % change Index (2005 = 100) Index (2010 = 100)

2005 24.0 - 100 127

2006 23.1 -3.7 96 123

2007 22.0 -4.6 92 117

2008 21.7 -1.5 91 115

2009 19.7 -9.1 82 105

2010 18.8 -4.6 78 100

2011 (fore.) 18.7 -0.6 78 99

2012 (fore.) 19.1 1.9 80 101

2013 (fore.) 19.3 1.1 80 102

2014 (fore.) 19.4 0.5 81 103

2015 (fore.) 19.5 0.5 81 103

Adjusted for inflation using the All Items CPI

Source: Mintel/Digital Entertainment Group

Fan-chart forecast

Mintel has produced this forecast using advanced statistical techniques, including stepwise, multivariate regression, and the autoregressive procedure using the statistical software package SPSS.

The model is based on historical market size data taken from Mintel’s own market size database and supplemented by published macroeconomic and demographic data from various private and public sources, including the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Commerce Department, the Census Bureau, the Council of Economic Advisers, and the Congressional Budget Office. The model searches for relationships between actual market sizes and a selection of relevant and significant macroeconomic and demographic determinants (independent variables) to identify those predictors having the most influence on the market.

For the forecast of U.S. consumer home entertainment rental and sell-through spending the following predictor variables were used in the forecast: per capita personal consumption expenditures and U.S. adult population.

Next to historical market sizes and a current year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the probability of various outcomes for the market value of U.S. consumer home entertainment rental and sell-through spending over the next five years.

The future uncertainty within this market is illustrated by the colored bands around the five-year forecast. The widening bands successively show the developments that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50% probability intervals. Statistical processes predict the central forecast to fall within the darker shaded area, which illustrates 50% probability (i.e., a five in 10 chance).

At a 95% confidence interval, Mintel is saying that 95 out of 100 times, the forecast will fall within these outer limits, which Mintel calls the best and worst case forecast as these, based on the statistically driven forecast, are the highest (best case) and lowest (worst case) market sizes the market is expected to achieve.

The best and worst case forecasts take the value of U.S. consumer home entertainment rental and sell-through spending from an estimated $18.8 billion in 2010, to $25.7 billion (best case) and $16.7 billion (worst case) in 2015. Based on the forecast derived above, however, Mintel expects the market to grow to a total of $21.2 billion in 2015.

Figure 5: Fan-chart forecast at 50-95% confidence levels, 2005-15

Source: Mintel/Digital Entertainment Group

If you want more details about this particular report, please contact the Mintel information team on +1 312-932-0400 in the U.S. or +44 (0)20-7606-6000 in the UK and the rest of the world, or email them to info@mintel.com\

2) Competitive Context

Movie Consumption at Home - US - May 2011

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