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Pronósticos en la cadena de suministro.


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Universidad Politécnica de Sinaloa

[pic 1]

Ingeniería en Logística y Transporte

3-2

Materia: Pronósticos en la cadena de suministro

Trabajo: Proyecto Walmart

Maestra: Lucía Orietta Garza Ninomiya

Alumnos:

Torrecillas Alemán Mónica Isabel

Zambrano Delgado Diana Patricia

Tirado Larrañaga Jorge Alexis

Osuna Peraza Omar Alejandro

Rojo Angulo Nancy Guadalupe

Ocegueda Padilla Andrea Paola

Mazatlán, Sinaloa Agosto de 2016

PROYECTO 5. WALMART

La tabla indica las ventas trimestrales (en millones de dólares) de las tiendas de Walmart de 1990 a 2003. Use el método más adecuado y genere pronósticos de los cuatro trimestres de 2004

 

 

TRIMESTRE

 

 

Año

1

2

3

4

1990

6,768

7,554

7,931

10,359

1991

9,281

10,340

10,628

13,639

1992

11,649

13,028

13,684

17,122

1993

13,920

16,237

16,827

20,361

1994

17,686

19,942

20,418

24,448

1995

20,440

22,723

22,914

27,550

1996

22,772

25,587

25,644

30,856

1997

25,409

28,386

28,777

35,386

1998

29,819

33,521

33,509

40,785

1999

35,129

28,913

40,899

51,868

2000

43,447

46,588

46,181

57,079

2001

48,565

53,187

53,185

64,735

2002

52,126

56,781

55,765

66,905

2003

57,224

63,231

63,036

75,190

Fuente: Base de datos S&P Compustat North American Industrial Quartely

Año

Trimestre

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

1

6,768

9,281

11,649

13,920

17,686

20,440

22,772

25,409

29,819

35,129

43,447

48,565

52,126

57,224

2

7,554

10,340

13,028

16,237

19,942

22,723

25,587

28,386

33,521

28,913

46,588

53,187

56,781

63,231

3

7,931

10,628

13,684

16,827

20,418

22,914

25,644

28,777

33,509

40,899

46,181

53,185

55,765

63,036

4

10,359

13,639

17,122

20,361

24,448

27,550

30,856

35,386

40,785

51,868

57,079

64,735

66,905

75,190

[pic 2]

Año[pic 3]

Trimestre

Ventas (y)

MA(4)

MA(2)

Y/MA(2)

S

1990

1

6,768

 

 

 

0.9286

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

7,554

 

 

 

0.9714

 

 

8153

 

 

 

3

7,931

 

8467.125

0.9367

0.9557

Trimestres

 

 

8781.25

 

 

 

Año

I

II

III

IV

4

10,359

 

9129.5

1.1347

1.1442

1990

 

 

0.9367

1.1347

 

 

9477.75

 

 

1991

0.9456

0.9790

0.9432

1.1461

1991

1

9,281

 

9814.875

0.9456

1992

0.9232

0.9697

0.9668

1.1538

 

 

10152

 

 

1993

0.8904

0.9882

0.9723

1.1162

2

10,340

 

10562

0.9790

1994

0.9234

0.9915

0.9738

1.1287

FA

1.0031

 

 

10972

 

 

1995

0.9158

0.9871

0.9669

1.1315

3

10,628

 

11268

0.9432

1996

0.9092

0.9917

0.9661

1.1334

 

 

11564

 

 

1997

0.9086

0.9814

0.9579

1.1329

4

13,639

 

11900

1.1461

1998

0.9184

0.9937

0.9554

1.1600

 

 

12236

 

 

1999

0.9893

0.7646

1.0163

1.1926

1992

1

11,649

 

12618

0.9232

2000

0.9372

0.9773

0.9432

1.1319

 

 

13000

 

 

2001

0.9316

0.9857

0.9607

1.1507

2

13,028

 

13435.375

0.9697

2002

0.9140

0.9854

0.9527

1.1155

 

 

13870.75

 

 

2003

0.9276

0.9937

 

 

3

13,684

 

14154.625

0.9668

Promedio

0.9257

0.9684

0.9527

1.1406

3.9874

 

 

14438.5

 

 

4

17,122

 

14839.625

1.1538

 

 

15240.75

 

 

1993

1

13,920

 

15633.625

0.8904

 

 

16026.5

 

 

2

16,237

 

16431.375

0.9882

 

 

16836.25

 

 

3

16,827

 

17307

0.9723

 

 

17777.75

 

 

4

20,361

 

18240.875

1.1162

 

 

18704

 

 

1994

1

17,686

 

19152.875

0.9234

 

 

19601.75

 

 

2

19,942

 

20112.625

0.9915

 

 

20623.5

 

 

3

20,418

 

20967.75

0.9738

 

 

21312

 

 

4

24,448

 

21659.625

1.1287

 

 

22007.25

 

 

1995

1

20,440

 

22319.25

0.9158

 

 

22631.25

 

 

2

22,723

 

23019

0.9871

 

 

23406.75

 

 

3

22,914

 

23698.25

0.9669

 

 

23989.75

 

 

4

27,550

 

24347.75

1.1315

 

 

24705.75

 

 

1996

1

22,772

 

25047

0.9092

 

 

25388.25

 

 

2

25,587

 

25801.5

0.9917

 

 

26214.75

 

 

3

25,644

 

26544.375

0.9661

 

 

26874

 

 

4

30,856

 

27223.875

1.1334

 

 

27573.75

 

 

1997

1

25,409

 

27965.375

0.9086

 

 

28357

 

 

2

28,386

 

28923.25

0.9814

 

 

29489.5

 

 

3

28,777

 

30040.75

0.9579

 

 

30592

 

 

4

35,386

 

31233.875

1.1329

 

 

31875.75

 

 

1998

1

29,819

 

32467.25

0.9184

 

 

33058.75

 

 

2

33,521

 

33733.625

0.9937

 

 

34408.5

 

 

3

33,509

 

35072.25

0.9554

 

 

35736

 

 

4

40,785

 

35160

1.1600

 

 

34584

 

 

1999

1

35,129

 

35507.75

0.9893

 

 

36431.5

 

 

2

28,913

 

37816.875

0.7646

 

 

39202.25

 

 

3

40,899

 

40242

1.0163

 

 

41281.75

 

 

4

51,868

 

43491.125

1.1926

 

 

45700.5

 

 

2000

1

43,447

 

46360.75

0.9372

 

 

47021

 

 

2

46,588

 

47672.375

0.9773

 

 

48323.75

 

 

3

46,181

 

48963.5

0.9432

 

 

49603.25

 

 

4

57,079

 

50428.125

1.1319

 

 

51253

 

 

2001

1

48,565

 

52128.5

0.9316

 

 

53004

 

 

2

53,187

 

53961

0.9857

 

 

54918

 

 

3

53,185

 

55363.125

0.9607

 

 

55808.25

 

 

4

64,735

 

56257.5

1.1507

 

 

56706.75

 

 

2002

1

52,126

 

57029.25

0.9140

 

 

57351.75

 

 

2

56,781

 

57623

0.9854

 

 

57894.25

 

 

3

55,765

 

58531.5

0.9527

 

 

59168.75

 

 

4

66,905

 

59975

1.1155

 

 

60781.25

 

 

2003

1

57,224

 

61690.125

0.9276

 

 

62599

 

 

2

63,231

 

63634.625

0.9937

 

 

64670.25

 

 

3

63,036

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

75,190

 

 

 

Año

Trimestre

T

Ventas  (y)

S

Y/S

T

Y/ST

t

año

trimestre

t

s

t*s

1990

1

1

6,768

0.9286

7288.3911

8324.1800

0.8756

57

2004

1

69565.7800

0.9286

64598.7833

2

2

7,554

0.9714

7776.4052

8743.4800

0.8894

58

2

71358.2000

0.9714

69317.3555

3

3

7,931

0.9557

8298.6293

9187.3000

0.9033

59

3

73175.1400

0.9557

69933.4813

4

4

10,359

1.1442

9053.4872

9655.6400

0.9376

60

4

75016.6000

1.1442

85833.9937

1991

1

5

9,281

0.9286

9994.6156

10148.5000

0.9848

2

6

10,340

0.9714

10644.4307

10665.8800

0.9980

3

7

10,628

0.9557

11120.6446

11207.7800

0.9922

4

8

13,639

1.1442

11920.1189

11774.2000

1.0124

1992

1

9

11,649

0.9286

12544.6909

12365.1400

1.0145

2

10

13,028

0.9714

13411.5709

12980.6000

1.0332

3

11

13,684

0.9557

14318.3007

13620.5800

1.0512

4

12

17,122

1.1442

14964.1671

14285.0800

1.0475

1993

1

13

13,920

0.9286

14990.3080

14974.1000

1.0011

2

14

16,237

0.9714

16715.0504

15687.6400

1.0655

3

15

16,827

0.9557

17606.9896

16425.7000

1.0719

4

16

20,361

1.1442

17794.9659

17188.2800

1.0353

1994

1

17

17,686

0.9286

19045.8755

17975.3800

1.0596

2

18

19,942

0.9714

20529.1332

18787.0000

1.0927

3

19

20,418

0.9557

21364.4449

19623.1400

1.0887

4

20

24,448

1.1442

21366.8939

20483.8000

1.0431

1995

1

21

20,440

0.9286

22011.6304

21368.9800

1.0301

2

22

22,723

0.9714

23392.0115

22278.6800

1.0500

3

23

22,914

0.9557

23976.1431

23212.9000

1.0329

4

24

27,550

1.1442

24077.9584

24171.6400

0.9961

1996

1

25

22,772

0.9286

24522.9378

25154.9000

0.9749

2

26

25,587

0.9714

26340.3335

26162.6800

1.0068

3

27

25,644

0.9557

26832.6881

27194.9800

0.9867

4

28

30,856

1.1442

26967.3134

28251.8000

0.9545

1997

1

29

25,409

0.9286

27362.6965

29333.1400

0.9328

2

30

28,386

0.9714

29221.7418

30439.0000

0.9600

3

31

28,777

0.9557

30110.9135

31569.3800

0.9538

4

32

35,386

1.1442

30926.4115

32724.2800

0.9451

1998

1

33

29,819

0.9286

32111.7812

33903.7000

0.9471

2

34

33,521

0.9714

34507.9267

35107.6400

0.9829

3

35

33,509

0.9557

35062.2580

36336.1000

0.9649

4

36

40,785

1.1442

35644.9921

37589.0800

0.9483

1999

1

37

35,129

0.9286

37830.0668

38866.5800

0.9733

2

38

28,913

0.9714

29764.2578

40168.6000

0.7410

3

39

40,899

0.9557

42794.8101

41495.1400

1.0313

4

40

51,868

1.1442

45331.2358

42846.2000

1.0580

2000

1

41

43,447

0.9286

46787.6373

44221.7800

1.0580

2

42

46,588

0.9714

47959.6459

45621.8800

1.0512

3

43

46,181

0.9557

48321.6491

47046.5000

1.0271

4

44

57,079

1.1442

49885.5095

48495.6400

1.0287

2001

1

45

48,565

0.9286

52299.1600

49969.3000

1.0466

2

46

53,187

0.9714

54752.9339

51467.4800

1.0638

3

47

53,185

0.9557

55650.3087

52990.1800

1.0502

4

48

64,735

1.1442

56576.6474

54537.4000

1.0374

2002

1

49

52,126

0.9286

56133.9651

56109.1400

1.0004

2

50

56,781

0.9714

58452.7486

57705.4000

1.0130

3

51

55,765

0.9557

58349.9006

59326.1800

0.9835

4

52

66,905

1.1442

58473.1690

60971.4800

0.9590

2003

1

53

57,224

0.9286

61623.9500

62641.3000

0.9838

2

54

63,231

0.9714

65092.6498

64335.6400

1.0118

3

55

63,036

0.9557

65957.9366

66054.5000

0.9985

4

56

75,190

1.1442

65714.0360

67797.8800

0.9693

        

ventas  (y)

6,768

7,554

7,931

10,359

9,281

10,340

10,628

13,639

11,649

13,028

13,684

17,122

13,920

16,237

16,827

20,361

17,686

19,942

20,418

24,448

20,440

22,723

22,914

27,550

22,772

25,587

25,644

30,856

25,409

28,386

28,777

35,386

29,819

33,521

33,509

40,785

35,129

28,913

40,899

51,868

43,447

46,588

46,181

57,079

48,565

53,187

53,185

64,735

52,126

56,781

55,765

66,905

57,224

63,231

63,036

75,190

64598.7833

69317.3555

69933.4813

85833.9937

...

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