Constitucion Nacional De Colombia

TRABAJO FASE I

PRINCIPIOS DE PROBABILIDAD

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL LIBRE Y A DISTANCIA

ESCUELA DE CIENCAS ADMINISTRATIVAS, CONTABLES Y DE NEGOCIOS

ADMINISTRACION DE EMPRESAS

PROBABILIDAD

Armenia, Quindío

2015

CUADRO SIPNOTICO

PRINCIPIO DE LA PROBABILIDAD

DESARROLLO DE LOS EJERCICIOS

EJERCICIO N° 1: ESTUDIO DE CASO 1

1) Probabilidad de casos apelados.

Tribunal de primera instancia | 1762/43945 = | 0.0401 |

Tribunal de lo Familiar | | 106/30499= | 0.0035 |

Tribunal Municipal | | 500/108464= | 0.0046 |

Probabilidad de casos revocados.

Tribunal de primera instancia | 199/43945= | 0.0045 |

Tribunal de lo Familiar | | 17/30499= | 0.0006 |

Tribunal Municipal | | 104/108464= | 0.0010 |

2) Probabilidad de que un caso sea apelado por cada Juez

Tribunal de Primera Instancia

Fred Cartolano | 137/3037= | 0.0451 |

Thomas Crush | 119/3372= | 0.0353 |

Patrick Dinkerlacker | | 44/1258= | 0.0350 |

Tomothy Hogan | | 60/1954= | 0.0307 |

Robert Kraft | | 127/3138= | 0.0405 |

William Wathews | | 91/2264= | 0.0402 |

WlliamMorrissey | | 121/3032= | 0.0399 |

Norbert Nadel | | 131/2959= | 0.0443 |

Arthur Ney Jr. | | 125/3219= | 0.0388 |

Richard Niehaus | | 137/2253= | 0.0409 |

Thomas Nurre | | 121/873= | 0.0403 |

John O Connor | | 129/2969= | 0.0434 |

Robert Ruehlman | | 145/3205= | 0.0452 |

J. Howard Sundermann | | 60/655= | 0.0628 |

Ann Marie Tracey | | 127/3141= | 0.0404 |

Ralph Winkler | | 88/3089= | 0.0285 |

Tribunal de lo Familiar

Penelope Cunningham | | 7/2729= | 0.0026 |

Patrick Dinkerlacker | | 19/6001= | 0.0032 |

Deborah Gaines | | 48/8799= | 0.0055 |

Ronald Panioto | | 32/12970= | 0.0025 |

Tribunal Municipal

Mike Allen | | 43/6149= | 0.0070 |

Nadine Allen | | 34/7812= | 0.0044 |

Timothy Black | | 41/7954= | 0.0052 |

David Davis | | 43/7736= | 0.0056 |

Leslie Isaiah | | 35/5282= | 0.0066 |

Karla Grady | | 6/5253= | 0.0011 |

Deidra Hair | | 5/2532= | 0.0020 |

Dennis Helmick | | 29/7900= | 0.0037 |

Timothy Hogan | | 13/2308= | 0.0056 |

James Patrick Kenney | | 6/2798= | 0.0021 |

Joseph Luebbers | | 25/4698= | 0.0053 |

William Mallory | | 38/8277= | 0.0046 |

Melba Marsh | | 34/8219= | 0.0041 |

Beth Mattingly | | 13/2971= | 0.0044 |

Albert Mestemaker | | 28/4975= | 0.0056 |

Mark Painter | | 7/2239= | 0.0031 |

Jack Rosen | | 41/7790= | 0.0053 |

Mark Schweikert | | 33/5403= | 0.0061 |

David Stockdale | | 22/5371= | 0.0041 |John A. West | | 4/2797= | 0.0014 |

3) Probabilidad de que un caso sea revocado por cada Juez

Tribunal de Primera Instancia

Fred Cartolano | | 12/3037= | 0.0040 |

Thomas Crush | | 10/3372= | 0.0030 |

Patrick Dinkerlacker | | 8/1258= | 0.0064 |

Tomothy Hogan | | 7/1954= | 0.0036 |

Robert Kraft | | 7/3138= | 0.0022 |

William Wathews | | 18/2264= | 0.0080 |

Wlliam Morrissey | | 22/3032= | 0.0073 |

Norbert Nadel | | 20/2959= | 0.0068 |

Arthur Ney Jr. | | 14/3219= | 0.0043 |

Richard Niehaus | | 16/2253= | 0.0048 |

Thomas Nurre | | 6/873= | 0.0020 |

John O Connor | | 12/2969= | 0.0040 |

Robert Ruehlman | | 18/3205= | 0.0056 |

J. Howard Sundermann | | 10/655= | 0.0105 |

Ann Marie Tracey | | 13/3141= | 0.0041 |

Ralph Winkler | | 6/3089= | 0.0019 |

Tribunal de lo Familiar

Penelope Cunningham | | 1/2729= | 0.0004 |

Patrick Dinkerlacker | | 4/6001= | 0.0007 |

Deborah Gaines | | 9/8799= | 0.0010 |

Ronald Panioto | | 3/12970= | 0.0002 |

Tribunal Municipal

Mike Allen | | 4/6149= | 0.0007 |

Nadine Allen | | 6/7812= | 0.0008 |

Timothy Black | | 6/7954= | 0.0008 |

David Davis | | 5/7736= | 0.0006 |

Leslie Isaiah | | 13/5282= | 0.0025 |

Karla Grady | | 0/5253= | 0.0000 |

Deidra Hair | | 0/2532= | 0.0000 |

Dennis Helmick | | 5/7900= | 0.0006 |

Timothy Hogan | | 2/2308= | 0.0009 |

James Patrick Kenney | | 1/2798= | 0.0004|

Joseph Luebbers | | 8/4698= | 0.0017 |

William Mallory | | 9/8277= | 0.0011 |

Melba Marsh | | 7/8219= | 0.0009 |

Beth Mattingly | | 1/2971= | 0.0003 |

Albert Mestemaker | | 9/4975= | 0.0018 |

Mark Painter | | 3/2239= | 0.0013 |

Jack Rosen | | 13/7790= | 0.0017 |

Mark Schweikert | | 6/5403= | 0.0011 |

David Stockdale | | 4/5371= | 0.0007 |

John A. West | | 2/2797= | 0.0007 |

4) Probabilidad de una revocación dada una apelación por cada Juez

Tribunal de Primera Instancia

Fred Cartolano | | 0.0040/0.0451 | 0.0876 |

Thomas Crush | | 0.0030/0.0353 | 0.0840 |

Patrick Dinkerlacker | | 0.0064/0.0350 | 0.1818 |

Tomothy Hogan | | 0.0036/0.0307 | 0.1167 |

Robert Kraft | | 0.0022/0.0405 | 0.0551 |

William Wathews | | 0.0080/0.0405 | 0.1978 |

Wlliam Morrissey | | 0.0073/0.0399 | 0.1818 |

Norbert Nadel | | 0.0068/0.0443 | 0.1527 |

Arthur Ney Jr. | | 0.0043/0.0388 | 0.1120 |

Richard Niehaus | | 0.0048/0.0409 | 0.1168 |

Thomas Nurre | | 0.0020/0.0403 | 0.0496 |

John O Connor | | 0.0040/0.0434 | 0.0930 |

Robert Ruehlman | | 0.0056/0.0452 | 0.1241 |

J. Howard Sundermann | | 0.0105/0.0628 | 0.1667 |

Ann Marie Tracey | | 0.0041/0.0404 | 0.1024 |

Ralph Winkler | | 0.0019/0.0285 | 0.0682 |

Tribunal de lo Familiar

Penelope Cunningham | | 0.0004/0.0026 | 0.1429 |

Patrick Dinkerlacker |

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