Estadistica Para Lanzamiento

Introduction

Throughout the course, we have learned valuable statistical concepts that can be applied in complex real life situations using the StatTools software. For this final project, I will be using and applying the Regression and Simulation concepts and tools applying them to a real challenge I am handling at the moment in my professional life.

I work in Marketing, as Group Product Manager in Takeda Pharmaceutical Company. It is ranked 16th among the biggest Pharma Companies in the Globe. Among my main functions, I am in responsible for the assessment, business case development and launch of new Brands into the Mexican Market and in some cases the entire LatinAmerica. Two of the main riddles a Marketer faces when launching a Brand is to define the Marketing Mix that optimizes the use of the limited resources. The other one is developing the Sales and Profit & Loss projections, because in these the probabilities of “key variables” happening are essential to determine the Brand’s real sales potential. Aiming for the highest probability to hit the sales target is essential, because if real sales exceed projections Supply Chain struggles or incurs into high expenses to have the product on time; or your Marketing Budget is just not enough. But even worse, is if actual sales fall short vs projections because this ultimately leads to sales gaps, which at the same time implies profit gap that most of the times cannot be covered.

Objective of the Project

As I have stated before, the two main challenges of launching a Brand are Sales projections and Marketing Mix optimization. The objective of this project is to tackle both challenges using the tools learned in class. To find the Marketing Mix that optimizes resources and yields the best results, I will use Regression Analysis taking as benchmark the long time (10+ years) leading Brand and take its historical information of Marketing elements investment to develop a model that will define the best combination for resource allocation. For Sales Projections, I will use Simulation tools applied to a Demand Model to determine the probability of achieving at least 70% probability to reach sales target.

Background

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), by 2030 Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the world. Every hour COPD is estimated to kill more than 250 people around the world.

COPD is caused by when the patient has had an important history of breathing toxic particles; the most common: smoking. There is also the case of miners and women who cook in wooden furnaces for a good part of their lives.

The disease affects mainly people >40 years old. It advances gradually, it is irreversible and ultimately mortal. It is classified by the GOLD (Global Initiative for Lung Disease) guidelines in four stages:

1) Mild: when the patient coughs

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