Ingeniero 2020: la Visión de la tecnología en el Nuevo siglo

The Engineer of 2020: Visions of Engineering in the

New Century

National Academy of Engineering

1

In the past, changes in the engineering profession and engineering

education have followed changes in technology and society. Disciplines

were added and curricula were created to meet the critical challenges in

society and to provide the workforce required to integrate new develop-

ments into our economy. Today’s landscape is little different; society

continually changes and engineering must adapt to remain relevant.

But we must ask if it serves the nation well to permit the engineering

profession and engineering education to lag technology and society,

especially as technological change occurs at a faster and faster pace.

Rather, should the engineering profession anticipate needed advances

and prepare for a future where it will provide more benefit to human-

kind? Likewise, should engineering education evolve to do the same?

Technology has shifted the societal framework by lengthening our

life spans, enabling people to communicate in ways unimaginable in

the past, and creating wealth and economic growth by bringing the

virtues of innovation and enhanced functionality to the economy in

ever-shorter product development cycles. Even more remarkable

opportunities are fast approaching through new developments in

nanotechnology, logistics, biotechnology, and high-performance com-

puting. At the same time, with tightening global linkages, new

challenges and opportunities are emerging as a consequence of rapidly

improving technological capabilities in such nations as India and China

and the threat of terrorism around the world.

Executive Summary

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

The Engineer of 2020: Visions of Engineering in the New Century

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10999.html

2 THE ENGINEER OF 2020

This report is the result of an initiative of the National Academy of

Engineering that attempts to prepare for the future of engineering by

asking the question, “What will or should engineering be like in 2020?”

Will it be a reflection of the engineering of today and its past growth

patterns or will it be fundamentally different? Most importantly, can

the engineering profession play a role in shaping its own future? Can a

future be created where engineering has a broadly recognized image that

celebrates the exciting roles that engineering and engineers play in

addressing societal and technical challenges? How can engineers best be

educated to be leaders, able to balance the gains afforded by new tech-

nologies with the vulnerabilities created by their byproducts without

compromising the well-being of society and humanity? Will engineer-

ing be viewed as a foundation that prepares citizens for a broad range of

creative career opportunities? Will engineering reflect and celebrate the

diversity of all the citizens in our society? Whatever the answers to these

questions, without doubt, difficult problems and opportunities lie ahead

that will call for engineering solutions and the talents of a creative

engineering mind-set.

Because precise predictions of the future are difficult at best, the

committee approached its charge using the technique of scenario-based

planning. The benefit of the scenario approach was that it eliminated

the need to develop a consensus view of a single future and opened

thinking to include multiple possibilities. This technique has proven its

worth for private and public entities alike in helping devise flexible

strategies that can adapt to changing conditions. Specific scenarios con-

sidered in this project were (1)The Next Scientific Revolution, (2)The

Biotechnology Revolution in a Societal Context, (3) The Natural World

Interrupts the Technology Cycle, and (4)Global Conflict or Globaliza-

tion? The story form of each scenario is presented in Appendix A. These

sometimes colorful versions only partially capture the vigorous dis-

cussions and debates that took place, but they serve to illustrate and

document the thinking involved in the process. Each in its own way

informed the deliberations about possibilities that can shape the role

that engineering will play in the future.

The “next scientific revolution” scenario offers an optimistic future

where change is principally driven by developments in technology. It is

assumed that the future will follow a predictable path where technologies

that are on the horizon today are developed to a state where they can be

used in commercial applications and their role is optimized to the

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

The Engineer of 2020: Visions of Engineering in the New Century

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10999.html

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

benefit of society. As in the past, engineers will exploit new science to

develop technologies that benefit humankind, and in others they will

create new technologies de novo that demand new science to fully

understand them. The importance of technology continues to grow in

society as new developments are commercialized and implemented.

The “biotechnology revolution” scenario speaks to a specific area of

science and engineering that holds great potential but considers a per-

spective where political and societal implications could intervene in its

use. In this version of the future, issues that impact technological change

beyond the scope of engineering become significant, as seen in the

current debate over the use of transgenic foods. While the role of

engineering is still of prime importance, the impact of societal attitudes

and politics reminds us that the ultimate use of a new technology and

the pace of its adoption are not always a simple matter.

The “natural world” scenario recognizes that events originating

beyond man’s control, such as natural disasters, can still be a determinate

in the future. While in this case the role of future engineers and

new technologies will be important to speeding a recovery from a

disastrous event, it also can help in improving our ability to predict risk

and adapt systems to prepare for the possibilities to minimize impact.

For example,

...