PRACTICA DE ANALISIS DE SERIES DE TIEMPO
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PRACTICA DE ANALISIS DE SERIES DE TIEMPO
CICLO: IX
FACULTAD: CIENCIAS
ESCUELA: STADISTICA
MAG. BELISA TORNERO
1.Graficar la serie temporal
AÑOS (X) | Trimestre | YT (Dt) |
2010 | 1 | 40 |
2011 | 2 | 36 |
2012 | 3 | 44 |
2013 | 4 | 50 |
2014 | 1 | 32 |
2015 | 2 | 30 |
2016 | 3 | 36 |
2017 | 4 | 42 |
2018 | 1 | 51 |
2019 | 2 | 50 |
2020 | 3 | 58 |
2021 | 4 | 61 |
2022 | 1 | 57 |
2023 | 2 | 55 |
2024 | 3 | 63 |
2025 | 4 | 65 |
[pic 1]
- Determinar el modelo lineal método mínimos cuadrados y estimar para el 2014
año | PRODUCCIÓN Yt | X | X*Y | X^2 | Yt_estimado |
2010 | 40 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 33.74 |
2010 | 36 | 2 | 72 | 4 | 35.66 |
2010 | 44 | 3 | 132 | 9 | 37.58 |
2010 | 50 | 4 | 200 | 16 | 39.50 |
2011 | 32 | 5 | 160 | 25 | 41.41 |
2011 | 30 | 6 | 180 | 36 | 43.33 |
2011 | 36 | 7 | 252 | 49 | 45.25 |
2011 | 42 | 8 | 336 | 64 | 47.17 |
2012 | 51 | 9 | 459 | 81 | 49.08 |
2012 | 50 | 10 | 500 | 100 | 51.00 |
2012 | 58 | 11 | 638 | 121 | 52.92 |
2012 | 61 | 12 | 732 | 144 | 54.84 |
2013 | 57 | 13 | 741 | 169 | 56.75 |
2013 | 55 | 14 | 770 | 196 | 58.67 |
2013 | 63 | 15 | 945 | 225 | 60.59 |
2013 | 65 | 16 | 1040 | 256 | 62.51 |
TOTAL | 770 | 136 | 7197 | 1496 | |
PROMEDIO | 48.125 | 8.5 | |||
n | 16 |
[pic 2]
[pic 3]
b= 1.9176
a = [pic 4]
[pic 5][pic 6][pic 7][pic 8][pic 9][pic 10][pic 11][pic 12][pic 13][pic 14][pic 15][pic 16][pic 17][pic 18][pic 19][pic 20][pic 21][pic 22][pic 23][pic 24][pic 25][pic 26][pic 27][pic 28][pic 29][pic 30][pic 31][pic 32][pic 33][pic 34][pic 35][pic 36][pic 37]
[pic 38]
año | x | Yt_estimado |
2014 | 17 | 64.43 |
2014 | 18 | 66.34 |
2014 | 19 | 68.26 |
2014 | 20 | 70.18 |
- Determinar el modelo lineal método codificado estimar para el 2014
Y | |||||
año | producción | U | Y*U | U^2 | yt |
2010 | 40 | -8 | -320 | 64 | 33.870 |
2010 | 36 | -7 | -252 | 49 | 35.652 |
2010 | 44 | -6 | -264 | 36 | 37.434 |
2010 | 50 | -5 | -250 | 25 | 39.216 |
2011 | 32 | -4 | -128 | 16 | 40.998 |
2011 | 30 | -3 | -90 | 9 | 42.779 |
2011 | 36 | -2 | -72 | 4 | 44.561 |
2011 | 42 | -1 | -42 | 1 | 46.343 |
2012 | 51 | 1 | 51 | 1 | 49.907 |
2012 | 50 | 2 | 100 | 4 | 51.689 |
2012 | 58 | 3 | 174 | 9 | 53.471 |
2012 | 61 | 4 | 244 | 16 | 55.252 |
2013 | 57 | 5 | 285 | 25 | 57.034 |
2013 | 55 | 6 | 330 | 36 | 58.816 |
2013 | 63 | 7 | 441 | 49 | 60.598 |
2013 | 65 | 8 | 520 | 64 | 62.380 |
SUMA | 727 | 408 | |||
PROMEDIO | 48.125 |
𝑦𝑡 = 𝑎 + 𝑏U
𝑦 t= 48.125 + 1.782 U[pic 39]
[pic 40]
[pic 41] | 1.78186275 |
[pic 42] | |
48.125 |
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